Has the time finally come to abolish the Electoral College?the real voter in the U.S. Presidential Elections - الهلال نيوز

November 5th marked a turning point for the American people and the world at large with the announcement of Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, as the winner of the U.S. presidential election. Trump thus becomes the 47th President of the United States, set to serve a term from 2025 to 2029.

Trump’s victory, defying expectations, sealed an election campaign that began in mid-2023 and ended with the announcement of the winning candidate on November 5th, 2024. Initially, it was believed that the main contenders from both parties, the Republican and the Democratic would be Trump and Biden, as the gap between them and their opponents was considerable. Not to mention their first debate. However, the White House surprised all by announcing Biden’s withdrawal and his replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris, who had not previously been among the leading Democratic candidates. Harris thus became the second woman after Hillary Clinton to fiercely compete for presidency. Meanwhile, Trump’s victory made him the fifth president to seek a non-consecutive second term and the second after Grover Cleveland to win two non-consecutive terms.

For many within and outside the U.S., the election results were unexpected, especially since Trump ran after losing to Biden in the 2020 election and amid a long list of legal and criminal allegations that followed him after leaving office. Trump had also faced two impeachment attempts during his previous term, making him the first president to be impeached twice, primarily due to issues concerning the war in Ukraine and the January 6 incident. Despite his later acquittal, he became the first president to run after facing impeachment. None of this, however, prevented him from securing 312 electoral votes—well above the 270 needed to win out of a total of 538. He also garnered over five million more popular votes than his opponent, making this the first presidential race between a previously indicted candidate and a former prosecutor, Harris’s previous role.

Although Trump did indeed win the popular vote, it was his victory in the Electoral College that secured his presidency. The "Electoral College" is an official body tasked with electing the President of the United States and exemplifies indirect elections. This means that the American public does not directly decide the elected president through their votes. Instead, they vote for electors, who then choose the most suitable presidential candidate from their own perspective.

Hence, each state has a certain number of Electoral College votes proportional to its population. For instance, California, one of the most populous states, has 55 electoral votes, while Vermont has only three.

American history is replete with examples of presidents who won the presidency through the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. In the 1824 election, John Quincy Adams triumphed over Andrew Jackson, even though Jackson won the popular vote. Also, in the 1876 election, Rutherford B. Hayes won against Samuel J. Tilden by a single electoral vote, despite Tilden’s popular vote majority. Similarly, in 1888, Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland, although Cleveland won the popular vote.

Some of the most prominent examples of this pattern include the 2000 and 2016 elections. George W. Bush won in 2000 due to his Electoral College votes, despite Al Gore winning the popular vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump despite her popular vote victory, as Trump won in the Electoral College.

What many do not realize is that, although Trump has secured the necessary Electoral College votes for victory, the outcome is not final until December 17, when electors cast their official votes. Legally, there remains a possibility that he could lose, making Harris the next president.

One potential scenario is that Electoral College delegates might change their votes. The U.S. Constitution does not mandate that electors vote for the candidate who won in their state. On December 17th, electors will finalize their votes, either confirming Trump’s victory or potentially shifting in favor of Harris. Congress will then certify the results on January 7th, prior to Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, 2025, leaving a window for possible changes.

Opponents of Trump’s victory might launch intense campaigns to persuade electors to change their votes in favor of Harris, even if it goes against their states' preferences, in an attempt to sway the December 17th decision. Another potential factor could be the establishment of electoral fraud, with discussions surrounding security breaches in the electronic voting system. If proven, this could imply that the declared result may not reflect the true will of the American voters.

In conclusion, Trump’s victory may seem logical upon examining his methods, which included direct messaging to various demographics on their core issues. For instance, long-standing Democratic policies on the economy and immigration failed to satisfy American aspirations, leading to discontent among the white middle class due to job losses amid rising immigration, which shifted prominent positions to immigrants. This demographic shift has contributed to a perceived threat among white voters, as the white American population has diminished over the past three decades. Furthermore, amid an unstable economic environment, a significant portion of the electorate opted for a candidate with economic expertise in hopes of revitalizing the economy.